Doug Fister: All Stats Point to “Yes”

This article appeared on FantasySquads.com on March 5, 2014.

Over the offseason, the Detroit Tigers traded starting pitcher, Doug Fister, to the Washington Nationals. The transaction was viewed as a good pickup for the Nats, as Fister, at 30 years old, is relatively cheap; he is set to earn $7.2 million in 2014. Fister has compiled some solid statistics during his five-year career (career ERA+ of 116) and will earn similar or less money this year than recent free agents Ricky Nolasco ($12 million, career ERA+ of 94), Scott Feldman ($12 million, career ERA+ of 96), Ubaldo Jimenez ($11.25 million, career ERA+ of 112, but only 77, 72 and 114 since joining the American League), Phil Hughes ($8 million, career ERA+ of 95) and Jason Vargas ($7 million, career ERA+ of 91).

The fantasy baseball world, however, seems to be overlooking the significance of Washington’s move and how it could impact your fantasy baseball team. ESPN.com lists Fister at #135 among its Top 300 Players for this season (downgraded from #101 prior to last year), while CBSSports.com has him even further down their list, at #148 (the average ranking among their three writers).

A move from the American League to the National League has dramatically improved many pitchers’ numbers including, in recent years, those of Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano.

* AL stats are the average of each pitcher’s final three seasons in the AL
** NL stats represent the pitcher’s first season in the NL after coming from the AL

As would likely be expected, each of the three pitchers above put up noticeably better numbers in his first season after switching from the A.L and its designated hitters to the N.L. and its free-swinging hurlers. Lee topped 200 strikeouts in each of his first three full seasons in Philadelphia; the only times he has done that in his career. Those years also account for three of his four best ERAs. Burnett’s ERA dropped over a run and a half the year he joined the Pirates and his walk rate was his second-best as a Major Leaguer. The following season, at the age of 36, his K/9IP of 9.8 was a career high. Last season, Liriano’s first in the N.L, resulted in a career-best (since becoming a full-time starter) in both ERA and WHIP. So why are similar progressions not being factored in for Fister?

Using ESPN.com’s projections for the upcoming year, a move to the N.L would seemingly be of no benefit to Fister’s numbers.

* AL stats are the average of Fister’s final three seasons in the AL
** NL stats represent ESPN.com’s projections for Fister in 2014

Fister’s K/9IP is in line with expectations, based on how Lee, Burnett and Liriano adapted to the change in leagues. But there is virtually no anticipated improvement in his ERA and WHIP (for the record, no pun intended, ESPN has Fister winning 14 games in 2014, which is the same total as he had last year in Detroit).

The outlook for Fister at CBSSports.com is even less inspiring.

* AL stats are the average of Fister’s final three seasons in the AL
** NL stats represent CBSSports.com’s projections for Fister in 2014

Taking the worst percentage improvement among each stat above for Lee, Burnett and Liriano and using that data to extrapolate how Fister may do this year, his numbers would look like this:

ERA: 2.71
K/9IP: 6.9
WHIP: 1.086

These stats are noticeably better than what the major fantasy baseball sites are forecasting for Fister’s 2014 season and are more in line with how he has fared when facing N.L opponents. In fact, over the past three seasons, Fister has a 1.71 ERA, with 7.9 K/9IP and a WHIP of 0.966 in 10 starts interleague starts.

While he likely will not attain such numbers this year, there appears to be some upside in drafting Fister much earlier than his current projected slot, which does not seem to factor in any National League benefit at all.

Fantasy baseball leagues are often won or lost not by what players you draft in the first and second rounds, but rather on the strength of the middle of your roster. Drafting undervalued players like Doug Fister will help you build the depth necessary to contend for your league’s title.

(photo by KeithAllisonPhoto.com)